2007: The Year Of Convergence

With the new year beginning, I would be remiss if I didn't make a few IT predictions regarding the hottest opportunities for VARs in 2007. The way I see it, there are multiple technology trends you need to be aware of this year, whether you currently sell these technologies or not. What's interesting about each of the trends that follow is that they're each part of a larger trend. Even though some of you are going to equate this first prediction to crying wolf, I believe we're finally going to hear about RFID (radio frequency identification) implementations that go beyond compliance-only slap-and-ship applications. (Check out my feature story this month on page 32, and see why networking VAR Spectrum Solutions, Inc. agrees.)

My second prediction is that last-mile fixed and mobile wireless is going to take off. Joining me in that opinion is analyst firm Juniper Research, which predicts WiMAX (worldwide interoperability for microwave access), a wireless standard that currently has a worldwide adoption level of 1.7 million users, will reach 21.3 million subscribers by 2012. Additionally, WiMAX will represent $2.53 billion in base stations and CPE (customer premise equipment) by 2012.

My third prediction centers on VoIP (voice over Internet Protocol), which I believe is going to experience impressive growth this year. According to research firm Synergy, global sales of enterprise IP telephony gear are projected to more than double from $4.9 billion in 2006 to $10.6 billion in 2009.

What do these three technology trends have in common? They're all part of another trend that's going to be big in 2007: convergence. Like many technology terms (e.g. SMB, tier-two), there are different definitions of what convergence is. Some see convergence as the ability to run voice, data, and video over one network. Others see convergence as a special kind of application integration whereby users view voice mails in their Outlook inboxes, or incoming calls automatically launch CRM (customer relationship management) applications showing the caller's profile and history. Then, there are those who insist that convergence is really about mobile devices with multiple voice and data communications features (e.g. smartphones). The truth is that all of these are examples of convergence, and they're all driven by the same need to improve worker efficiency and reduce IT management costs. In fact, if there's one killer app that crosses every convergence example, it's unified communications (UC). Many of your road-warrior customers carry multiple mobile communication devices such as laptops (with VoIP softphone capabilities), smartphone/dual-mode devices with cellular and/or Wi-Fi communication functionality, and pagers. It doesn't take long before these workers find that checking multiple voice mail systems and making sure each device is properly charged and accounted for becomes painfully daunting and inefficient. And, how about the administrators charged with managing multiple carrier subscription plans as well as keeping up with the security patches, warranties, and maintenance on all of these devices? UC is the application that makes converged networks, converged applications, and converged devices work. In a nutshell, UC entails putting voice mails, faxes, e-mails, and videos in a single inbox. According to Radicati Group, the number of UC mailboxes is slated to increase from 18 million in 2006 to more than 47 million by 2010, representing a 115% revenue increase to $1.2 billion.

So, there you have it, my top technology trends to watch for in 2007. I admit there's nothing very surprising about the whole thing, but don't be fooled. Sometimes the best business opportunities are the ones right in front of your face.